BUDGET BRIEFING: a voteless recovery for the Tories

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18 Mar 2014

This month’s Polling Observatory blog, written by political scientists charting the fortunes of the parties in the run up to the next general election, looks at the state of play as George Osborne delivers his fifth budget.

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You can read the blog, published by the Universities of Manchester, Southampton and Nottingham on the University’s popular Policy@Manchester website.

The postings pool together all the available polling evidence to produce an overall figure showing the popularity of the main political parties.

It is compiled by Dr Robert Ford from The University of Manchester, Dr Will Jennings University of Southampton, and Dr Mark Pickup, Simon Fraser University in Canada.

Journalists and the public are welcome to use the information and subscribe to the blog’s RSS feed

Dr Rob Ford said: “Most economists are agreed that Britain is heading towards a robust recovery: GDP is steadily growing, unemployment falling; business and consumers are growing in confidence. So today’s Budget statement will be surely be the sunniest in George Osborne’s Treasury career.

“But the enduring problem for the Tories is they have seen little evidence the improving economic climate is helping the Government's political fortunes.

“As the months pass, they see no meaningful movement in the polls. Instead, the evidence points to a voteless recovery in 2015. Going on current figures, British voters are unlikely to give the Government any electoral reward for its "tough decisions" heralded by the Tories and Liberal Democrats over the past few years.”

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