Mininotebooks Salvage PC Volume, But Take A Toll On Shipment Value, According to IDC

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FRAMINGHAM, Mass., September 16, 2009-WorldwidePC shipments fell 2.4% year on year in the second quarter of 2009 (2Q09), whileshipment value was down 19.1% over the same period, according to IDC'sWorldwide Quarterly PC Tracker. Consumer portables were the only area ofgrowth, with shipments increasing 44% from a year ago – rebounding from a lowof 28% growth and approaching the 44-55% range of 2007 and 2008. However,commercial portables growth remained depressed at –16%, and desktop volumesdeclined 17% as businesses limited spending and the market continued its shiftto portable PCs. Within consumer portables, traditional notebooks recovered to13% year-on-year growth from almost no growth in the first quarter, butshipment value was down 6%. The mininotebook share of consumer portables was upto almost 26% from just 5% a year ago. With mininotebooks averaging just over$400 each, compared to more than $900 for traditional notebooks, this shift istaking a toll on shipment value.

Goingforward, the market should stabilize a bit for both units and value. Desktopvolume will be roughly flat in 2010, while portable PC growth of 16.5% in 2010will drive overall volume gains. Mininotebooks will continue to grow, but theintroduction of CULV-based systems should limit the share captured bymininotebooks – and the resulting price erosion. IDC expects portable PCshipments to increase at an average rate of over 17% through 2013 (compoundannual growth rate 2009-2013), driving more than 11% average growth in total PCshipments and almost 5% in shipment value.

"Although mininotebooks have hurt margins of traditional notebooks, we can expect Ultrathin Notebooks based on new low voltage processors from Intel and AMD to somewhat stem the tide," said Jay Chou, research analyst, IDC's WorldwideQuarterly PC Tracker. "By integrating portability, longer battery life,and better multimedia specs and performance, the growth of these UltraThin-n-Light systems could give mininotebooks and traditional premium ultraportables a run for their money."

"While we expect mininotebook share and growth to stabilizewith greater competition from traditional notebooks, the stakes are enormous,"said Loren Loverde, director of IDC's Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker. "Buyersneed to be willing to pay a premium for more robust systems, which may be achallenge in tight economic times and in an era of 'good enough' computing. Onthe other hand, not everyone wants an entry-level system, and rising commercialspending should boost demand for traditional notebooks. After all, even priceson traditional notebooks are falling, and device cost needs to be balanced withthe device capabilities, resulting productivity, and total cost of ownershipincluding maintenance costs."

* Forecast data
Source: IDCWorldwide Quarterly PC Tracker, September 2009

* Forecast data
Source: IDCWorldwide Quarterly PC Tracker, September 2009

Taxonomy Note:PCs include Desktop, Notebook, UltraPortable, and Mini Notebook PC and do not include handhelds.

IDC'sWorldwide Quarterly PC Tracker gathers PC market data in 80 countries byvendor, form factor, brand, processor brand and speed, sales channel and usersegment. The research includes historical and forecast trend analysis as wellas price band and installed base data.

For more information, or to subscribe to the research,please contact Kathy Nagamine at 650-350-6423 or knagamine@idc.com.

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