Our stats man returns for his weekly look at the big action and he has revealing facts on the Manchester derby, Arsenal v Wolves and Southampton's woeful recent home form...

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Look away now, City

Manchester City are strong favourites to beat Manchester United at the Etihad Stadium on Sunday but a delve into local history suggests it is no foregone conclusion.

Since 1960 the Manchester derby has produced as many away wins as home wins in the league - 32 each. While United have enjoyed far more success in that period than City (15 league titles to City's four) this is not simply a case of United winning almost every derby, which would obviously mean a similar number of home and away wins. City have won a respectable 26 league derbies to United's 38 in this period. Away teams have been especially strong in the past six Manchester derbies in the league, winning four and drawing the other two. United are 15/28.60 on the Betfair Exchange to take three points on the road this weekend.

Saints marching downwards

Southampton's dismal home form has turned them from a Europa League team two seasons ago into one now threatened by relegation from the Premier League. Mark Hughes has been unable to halt a run that began under Claude Puel and continued with Mauricio Pellegrino in charge. Southampton are 6/42.54 favourites with Betfair to record their first home win of the season at home to Watford, but the value probably lies with the 11/53.15 visitors.

Wolves and Arsenal get second wind

When Wolverhampton Wanderers recovered from 2-0 down at half time to lose only 3-2 to Tottenham Hotspur at the weekend, it underlined the two sides to their character. In the Premier League this season their goal difference is minus seven in the first half and plus six after the break. But on Sunday Wolves travel to face Arsenal, who have also been far stronger in the second half. It's 10/11 on the Betfair Sportsbook that the second half at The Emirates supplies more goals than the first.

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